Doug Collins for the win

The hiring of Doug Collins is good news for Bulls fans looking to reboot the franchise and for those who think Gar Forman needs to be fired.  What I envision happening is a freer flow of information within the org or the outing of roadblocks to the flow and confrontation.  Doug Collins isn't going to suffer any fools nor care about office politics.

Bulls make surprise move in adding Doug Collins to management mix - Chicago Tribune

Collins also won't be replacing Forman, who ownership still backs despite vocal fans calling for his job as well as a reputation in some NBA circles for spin control over accountability.
"Doug will not be a decision-maker," Paxson said. "None of our roles have changed. Fred's our coach. Fred has had a phenomenal summer with our young players. Gar and I continue to be at the forefront of this organization."
In many ways, Collins will be tasked to replicate the success Jerry West had as a adviser with the Warriors. West is largely credited with helping nix an organization thought to trade Klay Thompson for Kevin Love.

First the Bulls are rebuilding so there are a multitude of decisions to make in this next year.  An advisor like Jerry West with GSW can play devils advocate and clearly Doug Collins is going to have opinions and share them.  Any decision will have to get past a review from Doug's perspective just as team personnel decisions had to get past Jerry West's scrutiny in Golden State.

Gar, as mentioned in this article and what I see first hand in recent press conferences, is a guy that uses platitudes and seems adverse to criticism and accepting responsibility.  I've seen this behavior with the old GSW President of Ops and it was toxic for the franchise.  While not evil, this behavior will squash dissent, debate, and creativity and lead to bad decisions and organizational dysfunction.  It took new ownership to fix the problem in GS.

The Bulls President is going to get a new perspective.  Doug's going to solicit and hear opinions from players, coaches and staff.  If there's something, he'll hear it and be able to evaluate and share.  While mercurial, he isn't a decision maker so his passion will be damped by the organization and his advisory role. He isn't involved with coaching so he will not abrade the players.

There's a role for Gar if he is part of a team that owns decisions as a unit.  In Golden State Riley, the GM, stayed on with new ownership and worked well but he wasn't autonomous and eventually Pete Meyer replaced him.

Markkanen Mark.

From SBNation (but not Blog-A-Bull)

 Lauri Markkanen is Finland basketball's star. Bulls fans should be hyped.

Bulls fans are disappointed by the haul they received in June’s Jimmy Butler trade. That’s fair, as the Timberwolves just gave up an injured Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and the pick that became Markkanen. But the 20-year-old has proven to be an unreal scorer so far. Maybe they should give him a chance. Through two games, he’s dropped 46 points on 18-of-28 shooting, and grabbed 14 boards. He’s made 5-of-8 from deep, and not all of those have come uncontested.
How’s Markkanen been scoring?
He’s been working an inside-out game we didn’t see all that much of at Arizona last season. Markkanen’s jumper has always been pure, but at Eurobasket, he’s shown he can put his seven-foot height and incredible length to use in the post. He’s used hook shots off the catch down low, and also blown by defenders off the dribble.

I saw Lauri hit a contested fade-away jumper during the final quarter against Slovenia.  It was a Dirk Nowitzki shot and it looked unstoppable.  While Lauri isn't Dirk, he's very tall, a coordinated dribbler, and a good shooter.  A fade-way jumper from this 7' player would be hard to stop.

Playing for Finland keeps Lauri from the Bulls but he's getting major minutes and, at age 19, has a leadership role for team Finland.  The experience and confidence he gains is invaluable.  The Bulls Coaches should be excited to have this kid when he returns.

Celtics passed on Butler ... For less?

538's assessment of the Celtics-Cavs trade.

He [Danny Ainge] spent the last year targeting All-NBA wings Jimmy Butler and Paul George but declined to include premium assets such as the exact draft pick he just sent to Cleveland. Seeing him now pull the trigger on Irving, a very good player who isn’t quite Butler or George, makes for good meme fodder, sure. Butler and George both went for cheap, but both also went for packages that catered specifically to the teams dealing them (the Bulls) really like Kris Dunn, and new Pacer Victor Oladipo played his college ball at Indiana)

If Ainge had a time machine would he revisit not trading for Jimmy Butler given what he gave for Irving or is Jimmy's age and mileage too high?  Irving is younger.
I am also very curious about Kris Dunn playing for Hoiberg. There's a lot riding on this kid's development.

Don't Learn How To Lose.

A rebuilding team doesn't make national TV but this season is very important.  The Bulls can't afford to waste this year.

Here are the goals:
NBA - By coming in last in Summer Forecast, the Chicago Bulls are right where they want to be

The Bulls could learn a tanking lesson from the other professional sports team that Jerry Reinsdorf owns in town, the Chicago White Sox. They've competed hard in games while continuing to rack up losses. They've spent the year dealing away proven assets for prospects with possibly huge futures. Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg knows he's in for a challenging season, but he can rehabilitate his own image within the league if he can get this unproven group to play hard on a nightly basis even in defeat. As tough as the losses might be to stomach for players, coaches and fans, strengthening your ability to land players like Porter or Bagley is much more important than trying to earn more wins in another lost season.   

1. Establish play within a system  
2. Develop players within that system (1)   
3. Compete hard and consistently according to (1) and (2)   
4. Lose without compromising goals (1-3)

Failure is possible.  The rebuilding 1999+ Chicago Bulls lost so badly under Tim Floyd that inexperienced Vinny Del Negro accepted the job when Floyd was fired.  Minnesota went 14 years without a playoff appearance, racked up top picks and proceeded to go 31-51 under a top coach, Thibs.  He quickly traded that young potential for Jimmy Butler and spent his $$ signing familiar veterans. 

Rebuilding the Bulls has happen quickly.  The ideal is one year to land a top 1-5 pick and spend 2018 money on a top free agent.

2018 Draft Class

Weeks before the 2017 Preseason and it is already time to look ahead to the 2018 NBA draft.

The Bulls want to rebuild which means playing their young roster, keeping long term salary cap clear and resting injured players. 

Their reward is a team that competes hard, plays their coach's philosophy of BB and develops players all while losing 50+ games.  "Success" means they further develop their players, protect $ to sign a top free agent and get lucky to land a 1-5 draft pick in 2018.


The Bernstein Brief: Bulls Catch A Potential Break « CBS Chicago

(CBS)
That Bulls plan got a boost from the decision by Marvin Bagley III to accelerate his graduation from high school to hasten his ascent to college and the pros, reclassifying into the 2017 class to play this year for Duke.

[the] 2018 draft ... already includes potential stars like Missouri forward Michael Porter Jr., Texas center Mohamed Bamba, Slovenian swingman Luka Doncic and Arizona center DeAndre Ayton.

The Bulls’ odds of being in that group are strong — that’s the whole point of the exercise right now...

Here's to a season for a high draft pick and cap space.

Lauri Markkanen (Doug McDermott V2.0)

With the #7 Pick in the NBA draft, the Chicago Bulls select Lauri Markkanen from the U of Arizona Wildcats.

As I see it, the Bulls once again traded up to get a tall, high percentage perimeter shooter.  They did this very thing in 2014 selecting 6' 8" Doug McDermott #11.  I also see a bit of this shooting skill in the 2015 drafting of Bobby Portis, a 6' 11" PF from Arkansas at #22.

Now McDermott is gone via trade, never fulfilling expectations and subsequently a bust to most Chicago fans. The Bulls gave up mid-level draft picks to move up to select McDermott.  Bobby Portis is TBD. He has avoided the bust label but expectations are this 3rd year player should contribute on a rebuilding Bulls team.

Markkanen is not explosively athletic and there are indicative stats like blocks and steals per game that underwhelm.  Some criticize his physical limitations; shortish arm length, thin build and lack of explosiveness and they see a weak NBA defender.  Most players don't become stars so these are safe criticisms to levy at a 19 year old PF/C.  Odds are against any #7 pick.

He is, however, 7' and coordinated and, as a freshman, carried the Wildcats into the NCAA tournament.  With  a sports and basketball pedigree and good work habits he stands out.  It's reported Lauri as a 10 year old practiced 4 hours a day and to this day he always talks about basketball.

Markkanen was born into a family of athletes, but his drive and dedication are the main reasons why he has excelled in his freshman season with the Wildcats. -SI

His father is a pessimist, not at all like Lonzo Ball's Dad.  Father worries about injury and didn't want to celebrate until Lauri got drafted and even then he worries.

“I don’t know, we’ll see how it goes. I’m just hoping they find a team for Lauri that he gets an opportunity to play, not be a player from 8 to 12. He has to be the best seven or eight players so he has time to show what he is capable of. - Dad

The Bulls are a good fit.  They need outside shooting and will dole out minutes for rookie development and better odds to land a top 4 pick in the 2018 draft.

Today I'd rank Markkanen as the 4th option at center behind Lopez, Felicio and Portis and he is the 3rd option at PF, behind Mirotic and Portis.  Markkanen might play at SF which would rank him 3rd behind Holiday and Zipser.  The Bulls could play him at SF along side their defensive guards, Nwada and Dunn.

Chicago has a philosophy that depends on floor spacing and seeks a high percentage shooter that can't easily be blocked.  They wanted this from McDermott, and Mirotic.  Neither satisfy with McDermott gone and Mirotic in a RFA contract hold out wanting more money.  Now the Bulls expect this from Lauri Markkanen.  It's a reasonable expectation. If he meets it, then the Bulls hit on their draft.

Trade: Carter-Williams for Snell

The Winner is Tony Snell.
Milwaukee Bucks re-sign Tony Snell to open NBA free agency

Snell, seldom used in three seasons with the Bulls, looked likely to stay glued to the bench had he stayed in Chicago. The Bucks had other plans for Snell, especially with Khris Middleton out six months with a torn left hamstring,

They inserted Snell into the starting lineup immediately and left him there all season. Snell started all 80 regular-season games in which he played and became an integral two-way player. He averaged 8.5 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game while shooting 45.5% overall and 40.6% from three-point range. His 58.8% effective field-goal percentage — a value in which three-point shooting carries added weight — was the best on the team.

Additionally, Snell was tasked with guarding the opposing team's best wing player each night. Taking on the likes of LeBron James, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard eased the pressure on his teammates, including Giannis Antetokounmpo and Middleton when he returned, allowing them to save their energy for running the floor and creating on the offensive end.

"It was a big trade because that's somebody that we knew that could fit and we wanted," Kidd said in March. "He's getting the opportunity to play and he's taken full advantage of that. He enjoys playing both ends of the floor."

...

Carter-Williams, a former rookie of the year, never found the right fit in Milwaukee over 1 1/2 seasons. He didn't find that in Chicago, either, as the Bulls recently became the first team to decline to offer a qualifying offer to a former rookie of the year at the end of his rookie contract.

The Bulls selected Tony Snell who never fit in with the team and admitted he lost confidence.  Playing in Milwaukee, Snell became a key player and their best two way player.

Bulls waive Rondo

Chicago Bulls waive point guard Rajon Rondo

CHICAGO -- The Bulls announced Friday they have waived veteran point guard Rajon Rondo. Rondo had a team option worth more than $13 million that would have become fully guaranteed had the Bulls not waived him by Friday's deadline. As it stands, the Bulls are on the hook for a $3 million guarantee still owed to Rondo.

Rajon was a one year rental.  Healthy, he made the playoff Bulls competitive against the Celtics. He's also volatile.  At $13 million, in a rebuilding, year a playoff berth is a stretch.  With more downside than upside, waiving him is the right choice.  There's more minutes for Dunn.





 

Blow out in Brooklyn

The Bulls won their first road game in the first quarter against what is considered an average to below average team, the Nets.  They built up the lead every quarter for a blow out win. 

This is what good teams do, they put an opponent away early and rest their starters.  Offering starters rest in the 4th Q while winning should keep this team healthy going into the winter.

You could not ask for a more ideal start albeit its just three games.   

2-0 and rightfully so.

The Bulls, projected to be a 43 win team, are 2-0 after beating two Eastern Conference teams, Boston and Indiana.  Both opponents were on the backside of back-to-back games.  This start is good and to be expected for a Bulls team projected to win 43 games.

The Bulls took 1st period leads in both games, and won according to how they were put together in the off-season; they moved the ball on offense, shot well and out rebounded their opponents. They ran when it was opportunistic and defended. Surprisingly they shot the 3pt well.

Chicago plays on the road in Brooklyn, then at Boston. The Knickerbockers come to Chicago and then Chicago travels to Indiana the next day for a back-to-back. 

Winning one of the three road games and beating the Knicks at home (2-2) would be par.  Chicago beating The Knicks and then Indiana the following day would be superb.

Winning

Rajon Rondo attends Bulls summer league.   

Dwayne Wade, in China, tweets recognition to first round pick Valentine after the Bulls win their Summer league series on Valentine's last second overtime shot.

For this rebuilding team, caring and winning matter.  Wade is there to set a standard.  Rajon too.  I think their actions show they understand.   Let's see how this attitude plays out going into Feburary.

Update:

With a projected 43 win season, the Bulls should be about .500 in Feburary and competing for the 8th playoff spot.

That's where these two veteran free agents should have this team.  

2016-17 Bulls forecast

16 wins and 66 losses. That's 538's forecast for a NBA team with minimum salary players.

Using NBA salary data, 538 calculates $2.6 million as the value of a win over the league baseline.  That is the price for talent that will give a team an edge and a win. It would factor into assessing a free agent's salary. 

41 wins is the league average.  

The team goal is to spend money on better than minimum salary players to get wins over the NBA baseline and hopefully over the NBA average of 41.

To evaluate a player, 538 created a "Wins Above Replacement projection" WAR measurement to assess the number of wins a player is forecast to add to a minimum team's seasonal win total. Each WAR over zero is a win added to the team's 16 win baseline. 

A high WAR number means the player contributes more to the win total and can be compensated more.  538 set a win's value at 2.6 M per win.  That price creates a way to evaluate a team salary and player contracts but that's another topic.

The Bulls backcourt has some aging stars. Their WAR tells us what will they contribute in 2016.  We can total each player's WAR for a team forecast.

SG Dwayne Wade is forecast to produce 3 wins above a minimum replacement (3 WAR) player.

PG Rajon Rondo is also forecast to produce 3 wins above the minimum.

SF Jimmy Butler is forecast to produce 7 wins or WAR

That's a backcourt generating 13 wins over the baseline.

Front court  C Robin Lopez WAR is 4 and PF Taj Gibson has a WAR of 4.

Key rotation player Nikola Mirotic is a WAR of 4.  Denzel Valentine. the rookie, is projected with a WAR for 2 his first year. 

Doug McDremott, Bobby Portis and Tony Snell project to add nothing at best. Doug and Snell maybe play a bit under the average minimum NBA player.

Total Bull's WAR is 27. Add it to the 16 wins projected for a replacement player team, or baseline, yeilds 43.

The roster isn't set but salary cap is limited so assume any other player they add will be a minimum baseline player (WAR=0) which adds nothing to the team's seasonal WAR.

Note: T'wane Moore who left the Bulls is a 0 WAR player.  

Can these guys play together ? The WAR metric doesn't care.  

Isn't Wade a scrappy veteran capable of winning a critical game ? Yes and WAR factors that character and veteran benefit into the WAR score.

A 43 wins Bulls team is one more win than last year.  It's one win less than the 8th seeded team which slid into the playoffs with 44 wins.

43-39 Should put us right where we were at the 2016 NBA draft.

Deng to LA Lakers

Loul Deng signed with LA Lakers.   He's an older player now but hard work pays off. 

The Lakers added a hard working veteran to anchor a young roster.

Kobe is gone.   It's Deng's team.

Who's on first?

Hoiberg insists  he can work with Bulls All-Star Butler

Called out by Jimmy Butler last season, Chicago Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg insisted Monday that he can still work with the two-time All-Star guard.

This headline is troubling.  Jimmy Butler played successfully for one coach and his game wasn't fully compatible with his team's all-star point guard.  Hoiberg isn't the only one needing to show he can work with a team.

As an example, Golden State moved hybrid PG/SG Monta Ellis and drafted the taller Klay Thompson to play next to Steph Curry as a SG/SF.  Under both Jackson and Kerr, both players figured a way to move the ball and work together to win a championship and set NBA win record.

Jimmy Butler will need to find a way to work within a more dynamic offense.  That's the NBA right game now and it's up to Bulter to figure a way to fit into Hoiberg's offense.  Isolation plays are for stat hounds and LeBron James.

Rose was sent packing and it's time for Butler to respond.

Jimmy Butler, Olympian

Daily Herald:

Bulls guard Jimmy Butler made the cut. He'll join Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Kyrie Irving, Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Jordan, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and three members of the Golden State Warriors -- Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes."http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20160627/sports/160629145/

The NBA season is long but not as long for Jimmy Butler who missed the playoffs.

DeMarcus Cousins aside, it's a good collection of players and good for Jimmy to play this summer.

Game 2: Bulls beat Brooklyn Nets

115-110 Bulls win.
All five Bulls' starters scored in double digits.

Bulls edge Cleveland.

This NBA season snuck up like a trick or treater.

Chicago's treat was a a win over Cleveland.  The trick was played on Lebron James, a blocked shot.

Credit late game Defense for the win.  Holberg's Bulls are a cipher.

Irrational Exhuberance

It's the dog days of August for Bulls fans. Time to speculate how this team will do in the upcoming season. This article caught my eye Why the Chicago Bulls will NOT make the playoffs  and first thought "trolling", but a negative outlook is just as rational as a positive one so let's look at the playoff competition and  a few underrated players on the Bulls roster.

First we read the Pacers will finish ahead of the Bulls for spot #8. The Pacers get George back and really, if he were Rose coming back from an injury we'd be thinking he's not 100% so George isn't going be 100%. Furthermore, with recent changes to the pacers roster, he's going to playing agisnt bigger players at PF.   

" That means playing George at power forward, even though he had achieved his success with Indiana while playing at small forward." 

Pacers signing Monta Ellis is not that big a boost. As a Warriors fan since '91 I've seen Monta rack up the stats and take bad shot after shot.  The W's brought in Jerry West and he quickly shipped Ellis off and they've been better at the guard positions since.  

There is no reason to think the Celtics at #7 are going to be better than the Bulls excpet that Coach is squeezing more than expected out of the roster.  

How far the Celtics go under Stevens will come down to the talent they manage to acquire. Clever schemes can't make up for lacking stars that can elevate a team's ceiling on their own. What is crystal clear even now, is that Boston is still trying to find that elite player, and in just two years Stevens has established himself as one of the best coaches in the league, and the Celtics greatest asset.

How did the 2015 draft go ?

The Celtics tried to trade up to draft Kelly Oubre but couldn't work out a deal, according to Sporting News' Sean Deveney. This latest report only seems to confirm the terrible, terrible draft night the Celtics had.

Ainge had draft pick assets he wanted to use to trade up but had no takers so he drafted best players and now has some players to trade.  He's first pick was a surprise, another back court player.  That's not a team headed to the playoffs.

So that's two playoff spots the Bulls should land given the returning roster.


What about that Bulls roster?

Let's address Dunleavy since I'm a Warriors fan by geography and watched that franchise select him 3rd in the NBA draft.  First, Dunleavy never fit in.  He was loathed by Golden State fans.  Too slow and cannot defend. Well a guy that plays too slow who sticks in the NBA for knowing the game isn't going to lose much when he's older.  He's developed a skill set and role that doesn't depend on speed. Another year isn't going to diminish his game.  Having him with his shooting skill for the low cost they paid is a big plus.

Kirk Hinrich is a veteran PG SG which I think is needed for a playoff run. Did they over pay to keep him? No.  He's another steal for the current market and a veteran that can help a first year coach.  So that's another player they are fortunate to have kept.

Noah and Gibson are 30 and supposed to have an age related drop off.  Well LeBron James is 30 and more reliant on athleticism. Any one heard about him dropping off his game in 2015? Furthermore the front court players can play longer as they age.  A 30 year old Center/PF isn't dropping off as much as a 30 year old SF/SG.

A lot depends on how much Nikola Mirotic, Tony Snell and Doug McDermott play. Of course these are first round draft picks so it goes without saying they all need to contribute. That's the same for any team. Rookie Bobby Portis might even help out the front court.

Rose should be healthier and his wingman Jimmy Butler tells us this offseason he added PG skills. If true then the Bulls have a LeBron light. If not then the Bulls resigned a defender for James and scorer.

Do something!

Free agency time and the Bulls are bringing back the team. Jimmy Butler returns at a much higher salary.   

Fans want the Bulls to do something but what?

The Chicago Bulls have drafted well and now have to pay to keep their talent.  Their strength has been depth and now they have to develop and use it more than they have.

A new Coach must find ways to give players enough court time and get more out of a pretty familiar roster. 

Nothing is guaranteed until games are played but Tony Snell has shown he can defend and shoot threes. McBuckets should bounce back from his injury last season and develop confidence in his shot.  Old man Kirk Hinrich will back along with Mike Dunleavy.  Both return at a bargain compared to what the market is paying free agents. Guard  E'Twaun Moore will have to contribute as an alternative PG backup to Hinrich.

Cliche here and there 

I like the team chemistry and work ethic and really see them improving under Hoiberg.  

No free agency magic.  They have the squad and players will have to improve the old fashion way.  Practice.

 

Awful Tribune

Steve Rosenbloom needs to find a new job.