J.Crawford Act III: I.Thomas vs. J.Paxson

J.Crawford's free agency flirt with NY has just about played out. Joe Sez the NY strategy was to put pressure on Chicago GM J.Paxson to re-sign and trade J.Crawford to NY. If not, then Crawford would be unhappy in Chicago and leave when his current contract expires next year.

Thomas tried to smooth talk Crawford to NY with promises of money and playing time. Joe Sez there was no real leverage NY could put on Chicago who own Crawford's rights this year. The threats about Crawford being unhappy and pushing the trade in the press were done put Paxson in a position where he would capitulate. Pressure Paxson into making a weak move. J.Paxson isn't that kind of GM (he wasn't that kind of player either). Thomas has to offer a deal Chicago wants. He cannot spin the situation to favor NY and his interests. As it stands, Crawford is going to be a Bull come Oct.

Joe Sez the the rush on Crawford's part is understandable but misguided. The Free agency market seemed crazy with D.Fisher, A.Foyle and B.Cardinal all getting fat paychecks and long term contracts. Why not cash in ?

<>Well, talent wise Crawford is a better player and he has far more potential for growth but character wise he's not in the same league as these three nor is he a leader on the basketball court. These less talent players earned their contracts with character, not talent. Crawford has to recognize that his next paycheck is determined by what he does and who is is, not how good he could be. Crawford needs to have a good season which means play smart, team oriented basketball. He may have to let his playing stats suffer desipte being a free agent and feeling the need a showcase his talent.

The draft rewards potential while free agency is rewarding character. We can thank Joe Dumars and his Pistons for that change - he won with character and role players. Oh, and maybe we should throw in a mention to the Portland Trail Blazers for setting the good bad example of a team loaded with talent and short on character.



.


GS and Bulls ranked in top 10 for off season improvement

GSW and Bulls are both listed in the top 10 for teams that improved with the draft and free agency. Da Bulls are #7.

The Bulls turned one lottery pick into two, and will reap the benefits. I'm a big Ben Gordon guy, and so are most of the league's scouts -- "he's not going to fail," a personnel guy said before the draft. A Gordon-Kirk Hinrich backcourt is going to be rough sledding for opponents for a long time, and getting Deng, who should step in to the small forward spot, with the seventh pick is only a bonus. Deng isn't going to wow you with athletic prowess, but he does everything well. When he adds a jumper to his game, watch out. Plus, whatever John Paxson decides to do with Jamal Crawford, he should get something good in return, but he's also looking to also rid himself of some onerous contracts (Eddie Robinson and Jerome Williams), and that might not be possible. We know Chicago will only go as far as Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry improve this season, but with the new kids on the block, and with Scott Skiles getting an entire offseason and training camp to get everyone in shape, the Bulls should be much improved next season.

GSW are #9.

They finally gave Chris Mullin the keys to the car, and Mully hasn't wasted any time. He brought in Rod Higgins as his right-hand man, drafted big man Bierdins out of Latvia with the 11th pick and hired Stanford's Mike Montgomery as head coach. The last is the biggest gamble, but at least Mullin put solid assistants (Terry Stotts, Mario Elie) around him, and the NBA guys who worked with Montgomery on the World Championship team say he's got a chance. And Mullin is surrounding his young core of Jason Richardson, Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy with veterans from winning situations -- enter 0.4 hero Fisher, and Davis, whose been in the playoffs for most of the last decade. Giving Adonal Foyle $41 million is a reach, though, even if Dampier won't be retained. That should set up an interesting negotiation next summer with Dan Fegan, Dampier's agent -- and the rep for Murphy and Richardson, both of whom could be restricted free agents after next season. But Mullin isn't going to back down from a fight.

GMs C.Mullin and J.Paxson are similar. Both are players from the same NBA generation who "got by" on work ethic and drive rather than talent. Neither is going to back down or blink in a trade stand-off (Crawford and Dampier) nor are they frightened to take risks. Mullin has not waited on E.Dampier. Once he opted out of his contract C.Mullin made moves to resign his other center A.Foyle and acquire a new back-up center from Portland. This means GS can be flexible in future deals and doesn't need a replacement center in a sign-and-trade for E.Dampier.

E.Dampier is the "best" free agent left and as a center, he could make the difference between the payoffs or the NBA lottery for an Eastern conference team.

GS Contracts

N.Van Axel is overpaid but he is also productive and in the last year of his contract (11m/year: $77 million starting in 1999 with a team option for '06). That was one reason trading A.Jamison for Van Axel helped GS. Jamison is also overpaid but his max contract lasts longer to 2007) (2001-2007 $79.3 player opt '07).

Trading Van Axel to Portland rids GS of an older, temperamental player who was injured most of last season. GS picked up a PF Dale Davis and PG Dan Dickau. Both of their contracts also end in 2005. So GS lost nothing in terms of salary cap and they got an older, defensive, team oriented player in place of a scoring PG/SG. They also get Dan Dickau, a 3rd string, back-up PG to Derek Fisher and Speedy Claxton. Trading Van Axel removes the log jam at PG and SG (top draft picks J.Richardson and M.Pietrius).

Dale Davis was described as the defensive heart of the Trail Blazers and can play Center. He will team up with veteran PF Clifford Robinson who played well for GS last year and is under contract to 05 (team optin in 06). A.Foyle is starting center and also known for his defense and shot blocking. T.Murphy is a 4th year PF who has played center and developed a 3 point shot (working with C.Mullin). C Evan Eschmeyer and PF Popeye Jones are left overs of the A.Jamison trade and contracts expire in 06 and 05 respectively.

Popeye Jones:
Enjoys the physical battle in the paint despite his lack of size and athleticism... Hard nosed rebounder... Plays with heart... Not a bad jumper... Makes no mistake from the charity stripe... Totally unselfish player.

Evan Eschmeyer:
Another big tough man in the middle... No offensive skills... Injury prone.

Dale Davis:
A hard worker, a rebounder and a good defensive player... Not a guy to care about on the offensive end... Has no range and no proper post-up game... Still in a good physical shape.

Adonal Foyle:
A shot blocking machine... Raw offensively... Horrible from the free-throw line... Has not lived up to the expectations... A good locker room presence.

Golden State, NBA's laughing-stock?

Let us look at this CNNSI article on the GSW.

Watch out, Clippers

Golden State proving a worthy rival for laughingstock crown

But then free agency started, and Mullin completely lost his mind. Let's review the Warriors' disastrous July maneuvers:

1. Signed backup center Adonal Foyle for six years and $41 million.

2. Allowed emerging forward Brian Cardinal to leave for Memphis.

3. Signed backup point guard Derek Fisher for six years and $37 million -- the same amount Cardinal received from the Grizzlies.

4. Appeared on the verge of allowing Dampier to leave as free agent, agreeing to sign-and-trade with Knicks for backup center Nazr Mohammed and not-even-good-enough-to-be-a-backup-anymore Othella Harrington. (This deal could still fall apart, but only if Dampier signs with Altanta and leaves the Warriors with even less).
   

4.) The NY trade for Dampier did not happen. Instead GS traded with Portland and got a defensive, backup-forward: Davis, who will make $10 million next season in the last year of his contract, averaged 4.4 points and 5.2 rebounds as the physical heart of Portland's defense last season.

3.) Brian Cardinal is no Derek Fisher. Brian had one good season while Fisher has been a cornerstone of the Lakers. Fisher is going to be 30 so he is going be overpaid towards the end of his contract however, he is a hard working team oriented veteran. Honestly, if the reverse had happened, this guy would have said GS could have signed veteran and clutch player Derek Fisher for the price of Brian Cardinal. Fisher played on a team with Bryant and Shaq and last year Malone and Payton. All of them fought for the ball and shots so why extrapolate Fisher's past scoring to assess his value? He was the locker room glue and solid teammate. He made clutch shots and was a trusted player on the Lakers.

2.) Most writers think Memphis overpaid for Brian Cardinal. See above.

1.) A.Foyle for 7 million a year over six years. That's the average salary for a Center in the NBA, 7 million. Dampier is going to cost 10 million or more and he pouts in the locker room and disappears on the court. A.Foyle was hurt last season so his numbers are going to be low, Dampier was healthy last season, while he struggled for years with a knee injury.

I will conceed this point:

Fisher is 30 and has six guaranteed years on his contract, which means he'll be 35 in the final season of the deal. Last season only three of the 53 point guards who played at least 1,0000 minutes were that age or older -- Rod Strickland, Darrell Armstrong and Gary Payton -- and none of them were worth anywhere near the kind of money that Fisher will be making.

Look even two years ahead and the news becomes grim. In the third year of his contract Fisher will be 32 years old. Only eight point guards of that age were able to play at least 1,000 minutes last year, and they all had one thing in common -- height. All eight of them were at least 6-foot-3. Fisher, however, is just 6-1, and thus much more dependent on speed that will decline rapidly with age.

I don't think Fisher will be worth his salary when he is 35. The stats. are not promising. Fisher plans on retiring with GSW and the size of his contract when he is 33-35 will assure that he will be hard to trade. Still, I think having him and using him earlier in his contract years will off-set the latter part.

Air Kobe II

I said the Kobe-likes-the-Bulls story was fishy.

CNNSI agrees.

That's why they call it the Windy City

Sorry, but something here smells fishy. For one, the Bulls had only the mid-level exception ($4.9 million) to offer Bryant. For another, if Bryant were truly interested in Chicago, wouldn't he have been willing to pay his own way to visit? What's the cost of a private jet, anyway? $25,000? Those are peanuts compared to the millions Bryant was going to get wherever he played.

Any way. I wouldn't want him in Chicago.

Dampier and da Bulls

Does Erik Dampier want to play for the NY Knicks?

No.

He doesn't like pressure and scrutiny. NY will be a pressure cooker and they'll want him to perform 12 pts and 12 rebounds every night. Dampier isn't as good as his statistics indicate - more importantly, he had one breakout season - this season where he averaged 12 and 12.

Do the GSW want him back? Not at 10M/year in a long term contract. I think GSW has had enough of him or at least had enough of him at the price he wants.

GSW resigned his backup, A. Foyle to ~8M/year. Foyle had much poorer statistics than Dampier but GSW wanted him. Why? Dampier fades in-and-out and sometimes totally disappears in games. He often plays down to the competition. GSW are looking for team guys and character. Dampier seems moody and sensitive to criticism. I think GSW GM Chris Mullin wants guys who are tough and coachable rather than guys with statstics and athleticism.

Dampier may go to NY if Atlanta doesn't offer him a large contract and GSW can find some combination of players.

Thomas will still try to sign Crawford but only after Dampier signs elsewhere and Thomas is left with fewer options and a lot of pressure to improve.

This means with NY wanting J.Crawford, Paxson is in the driver's seat.

Dampier needs a home

Eric Dampier is a 6'11” center who averaged 12 points and 12
rebounds for the GSW last year. He's a free agent who opt'ed out of his
current 8M/year contract. He wants 10M/year or more.



He wants a new home with a contender. My guess is that LA will
want Dampier to replace Shaq at Center. The Hawks want him but
they are not competitive and haven't had good attendance when they were
winning. Who has free agency money?


The GSW resigned backup center A.Foyle for twice is old salary over 6
years. While they overpayed, Foyle is a good
citizen/player. This means the GSWs have a center
and therefore, can be more flexible for a sign and trade of
Dampier. With Kobe
resigned, the Clippers and maybe LA, with their bonanza of new players
(Odom,Butler, & Grant) can work a sign and trade. IMHO,
LA will want to keep Grant who plays center but is really a very good
PF. With Grant and Dampier, they'll be competitive with the west
but I don't know much about their salary cap situation.

Air Kobe

We're told that Kobe Bryant considered signing with Chicago. "We" were one of the top four locations for the free agent. What heppned? We could fly him up on a chartered jet becuase NBA rules don't allow such perks and Kobe doesn't fly commerical airlines. Too bad - if only.

Well my question is, "Why doesn't Kobe pay for his own charter flight?" He does this for his trips to Colorado. My guess is because he didn't want to.

A tale of two players

This says it all.

Paxson scouted Nocioni at a tournament in Spain in February. Signing him would dovetail nicely with the Bulls' plan to bring Luol Deng along slowly. It also would glue Eddie Robinson firmly to the bench if he isn't included in a trade to the Knicks.

Nocioni's deal is believed to be for three years and near $3 million annually. It leaves the Bulls with enough money to pursue players like Lithuanian shooting guard Arvydas Macijauskas or veteran Toni Kukoc.

But Crawford's uncertain future— -- the talks with the Knicks could resume Wednesday, in a month or never -- —has management waiting on the next move.

"I've said all along the only way we could do a deal like Jamal's [to the Knicks] is if we got financial relief," Paxson said. "If we move Jamal, we're moving the best player in the deal. So we have to have some advantage. It just hasn't seemed to work.

Nothing personal but J.Crawford was the leading scorer for Chicago by default. His numbers are artifacts of playing for a losing team that hasn't many offensive options including a gap at small forward. He shoots often and sometimes poorly. For him to expect 7-9 million for 6 years is unearned. Some teams have overpayed for freeagents but those are mistakes which do not prove Crawford is worth that kind of money. He is a talent, more so than those players NY offers in compensation. Paxson is not going to give him up in a bad deal. Thomas is not making a good offer.

Let Crawford find another team willing to play more than th emid-level exception. If not then wait one more year for only 5 million and go as an unrestricted free agent. He'll have to chance not getting hurt. 5 million is a lot of money. Note: Walter Payton once sat out for a pay raise - 400,000 a year. Let's say that he was 10 times as much as now, it's still only 4 million for the best football player ever.

Nocioni sounds like a solid player who is probably every bit as good as Forward B.Cardinal (Memphis) and Guard M.Daniels (Dallas). He's 9 million for 3 years - about half or even less than those other players. At least all 3 are young enough to play to their potential all those years. A.Foyle for GSW is a Center who will be ~35 when his 6 year contract ends. That's a long term deal to a guy who will grow old and produce less.

Guard Arvydas Macijauskas or veteran SF Toni Kukoc?
If Pippen is any sign, I'd go with Arvydas Macijauskas. Toni Kukoc is a great passer, can score and is also a local resident of Chicagoland and good veteran influence for the team. Convinced? Me too!

How to be an NBA star Part 1

oh

Curry said he is avoiding fried foods and hasn't been eating late at night. "I feel lighter," he said. "I need to get stronger." …

'Nuff said.

SF dark horse for da Bulls

The Bulls will sign a foreign SF

The Bulls brought Argentinean star Andres Nocioni to Chicago on Tuesday and are close to signing him to a multi-year contract for a portion of their mid-level exception, a league source told ESPN Insider Chad Ford. According to the source, the two sides have agreed to terms but issues relating to Nocioni's buyout with a Spanish team, Tau Cermica, could throw a wrench in things. Bulls GM John Paxson confirmed a strong interest in Nocioni on Tuesday, but stopped short of saying that a deal was done.

"This is the guy we've wanted all along," Paxson told ESPN.com. "We think he'll bring a toughness to our team at the small forward position."

The 24-year-old Nocioni played for Tau Ceramica last season, averaging 13.7 points and 5.7 rebounds during Euroleague play. Nocioni is widely considered the best international player not playing in the NBA.

Nocioni is a solid perimeter shooter with NBA 3-point range, but he shines posting guys up and playing the mid-range game. Teams have wanted him for some time, but a big buyout with Tau has prohibited him from making the leap.

Nocioni has dunked on Ben Wallace. The knock on Nocioni was that he was an undersized PF but he has since developed a better perimeter game and will play a physical SF position. Considering some of the expensive Free Agent deals announced, and Paxson's excitement, this might be one of the better free agent signings in 2004-05. GSW free agent Brain Cardinal was another PF with good perimiter skills who played SF and PF for GSW and he signed with Memphis for 38 million.

Act II: Tough love

What does J.Paxson say to J.Crawford?

"But this is one of the reasons we have restricted free agency. It gives both sides a little bit of leverage.

''We don't want Jamal to be unhappy,'' Paxson said. ''Unfortunately, this part of the business of negotiating and trying to get something done to satisfy all parties is not easy. The way we are going about this is not at all meant to be a slight to Jamal. I've said over and over, and I will continue to say, that we like Jamal a lot as a player and we value him as a player.

If talks collapse, which no one expects, Paxson knows he might have to keep a player who would rather be elsewhere.

J.Crawford has got to expect this will drag on and his agent A.Goodwin's complaining about closing the deal makes this all the more interesting.

Also, What does this mean?

Goodwin, who could not be reached for comment Friday, has said he has had nine clubs express interest in acquiring Crawford. But only the Miami Heat, Sacramento Kings, Minnesota Timberwolves and Knicks have talked with Paxson about Crawford, and only the Knicks have entered into negotiations.

If Miami does trade C.Butler, L.Odem and B.Grant for S.O'Neal then Miami could possibly be interested in signing Crawford and having him play in the backcourt with D.Wade. Both are capable as SG/PG.

Miami can't give up their scoring SG and SF for Shaq and not replace one of these two with a outside scorer. Wade isn't enough. Crawford makes sense as a guy who can play both guard positions, score from the outside and punish any team that puts a defensive stopper to slow D.Wade and then collapses on Shaq when he gets the ball.

What about Eric Dampier?

Eric Dampier of the GS Warriors is a Center and had a great year. He opt'ed out of his current contact which had 2 more years for 17 million and is a free agent. Given this is an in flated market, what is he looking to get? 40 million: 10 million a year for 4 years.

Is he worth 40 million or 10/year? No. He had one good season and wants to be paid as if that's the norm. But this is an inflated market and so maybe he is going to get what he wants.

Let's see.

Act II: It's clobberin' time

Maybe I figured wrong.

After a 30-minute phone conversation with Knicks President Isiah Thomas on Friday, the excitement in Jamal Crawford's voice was palpable.

In either deal, Crawford could make $57 million over six years or $70 million over seven.

Thomas told Crawford he would be excited to see him in a Knicks uniform. He may get his chance soon.

The Bulls are aware Crawford is the best talent in the talks, which makes future financial flexibility paramount to the deal. The inflated free-agent market has affected the Bulls' budget of about $5 million to re-sign Crawford.

I'm more or less inclined to have Crawford tough it out on the Bulls and if necessary pout on the bench than I would see him force a bad trade.

What's driving this trade?

Thomas needs to sign someone substancial for his own sake as much as for the Knicks. He can't do nothing and keep his boss happy. He traded this year's draft pick last year but still needs to upgrade the Knicks. This is his best chance given Wallace is not going to sign for a lesser amount.

Crawford isn't worth more than the 5 million mid-level exception. 10 million for J.Crawford is bad deal for NY given they already have a scoring PG and J.Crawford still needs to improve his play and mature. Ironically, E.Robinson might be salvageable in NY and not as bad a player there as he would be in Chicago. He is a talented player and maybe he can be motivated to play to his potential. J.Williams is a hard worker. Both Williams and Robinson are overpaid and only one has an attidute problem.

It's clobberin' time.

Act I: If you really love me ....

This is getting interesting but it's still act one (of three).

"If you have a player you want, you should do whatever you can to keep him," Goodwin said Thursday. "The Bulls haven't done that to this point. Other teams have stepped up and taken care of players who aren't as integral to their teams as Jamal. [Knicks President] Isiah Thomas wants to do one thing and the Bulls want to do something else."
...
Goodwin called the Knicks the favorites to land Crawford. And he has a history of pulling power plays for his clients, so this process could get messier if it drags on. But the Bulls remain in the driver's seat.

I say let it get messy. Make Goodwin "pull power plays" - Paxson doesn't strike me as someone who is going to be bullied or pushed in to making a bad deal. I think the Bulls have invested a lot into Crawford and aren't willing to let him go for cheap. As for "or else" - I can't see what it would be unless Goodwin tries to poison the Bull's relationship with Jamal Crawford's friend, Bulls center Eddie Curry.

Sign and Trade?

What does NY think?

A sign-and-trade for Crawford, the Chicago Bulls guard, appears to be progressing. Thomas is speaking regularly with the Bulls about a trade for Crawford, a restricted free agent who is looking for a deal in the neighborhood of $7 million and $9 million annually.

The Knicks would prefer to trade Shandon Anderson but will likely be forced to part with Kurt Thomas and perhaps Frank Williams and Othella Harrington. The Bulls would insist that the Knicks take back a player with a big contract, either Eddie Robinson or Jerome Williams.

"Well, if the players are players I like and think can play and help us, it wouldn't be that big of a problem," Thomas said. "If we take contracts then we have to give contracts. We're not under the cap so it would be a dollar-for-dollar trade."

I could see the Bulls improving with Kurt Thomas (SF)
O. Harrington is a PF/C and plays ~10-15 minutes/game.
Frank Williams a PG from U of IL.

IMHO, NY will want to pick-up the talented but underperforming E. Robinson and not the junkyard dog, PF J. Williams.

Brian who?

Brian who?

Cardinal, 27, grew up in downstate Tolono, near Champaign. His father, Rod, was head basketball trainer at the University of Illinois for more than 30 years.

After a standout college career at Purdue, Cardinal essentially was a bench-warmer during his first three years in the NBA with Detroit and Washington. He appeared in a total of 28 games and averaged 1.9 points.

Last season, Cardinal stepped in for the injured Troy Murphy and his numbers skyrocketed to 9.6 points and 4.2 rebounds per game in just more than 21 minutes.

The 6-foot-8 Cardinal could play either forward spot, but his natural position is power forward. He is not expected to command more than $1 million to $2 million as a free agent, though a number of teams have expressed interest.

Brian also started at SF and scored 32 points vs. Phoenix 2/11/04.

He's also physical and draws fouls.

Ranks #3 in the NBA in Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage(0.444)

Ranks #6 in the NBA in Free-Throw Percentage(0.878)

Ranks #10 in the NBA in Free Throws Per 48 Minutes(6.99)

Ranks #17 in the NBA in Free Throw Attempts Per 48 Minutes(7.96)

The rub is the Bulls have 1.1 million and the mid-level exception. Cardinal will probably get offered more than 1.1 million.

CBS ranks free agent PGs

PG free agents ranked by CBS.

1 S. Nash, DAL Agrees to deal with PHO
2 J. Crawford, CHI
3 D. Fisher, LAL
4 T. Hudson, MIN
5 R. Alston, MIA

Crawford is ranked number 2?!

And then there's this

Aaron Goodwin, Crawford's agent, is biting his tongue about a lack of a Bulls offer for now, but he has a history of pulling power plays for his clients. Just ask Seattle about how Goodwin helped Gary Payton get traded to Milwaukee.

In light of a $38 million deal for Dallas guard Marquis Daniels and a $41.6 million deal for Golden State's Adonal Foyle, Goodwin believes Crawford, the Bulls' leading scorer, is worth more money.

This year there is more money chasing fewer quality players. I don't see Crawford becoming as valuable as Foyle. Centers have averaged over 7 million (or so I recall reading) in the NBA. 41.6M over 5 years is just over 8 million per year. That's about par for a hard working Center. Foyle's not lived up to his status as the #7 pick but he is smart, mature, a solid citizen and team oriented player.

Daniels is another story. I don't know as mich about him - he's a tall SG/PG 6'6" (like Crawford) but he is a 4 year college player out of Auburn. 38 million is probably an overpayment but what choice did Dallas have?

Crawford has yet to show he can play winning basketball. Sure he is the leading scorer but IHMO his shot selection is suspect.

NY is a wild card, sort of. NY's Thomas is motivated to acquire someone but they have so many bad contracts and so few assets for Chicago that I can't see NY making a good offer. Maybe some 3rd party will join in and make this a good move for Chicago. IMHO, the Payton deal worked best for Seattle - the Bucks got him for only one year and then he left for L.A.

I'd keep Crawford and risk letting him walk away for nothing next year as a free agent *if* that's the threat from his agent. Next year's free agent market might not be so tight on talent and Crawford might not live up to expectations.

Looks like the Bulls did well picking a PG/SG for the 3rd year in a row.

Player Bio Pictures?

Why base a player's worth on an NBA bio Photo?

Here's Ron Artest.
Nasty or crazy? You decide.

Jamal Crawford

What to do?

My advice - reshoot this team picture.


Having a tough-guy player photo is worth at least 5-8 million year.



See what I mean?

Da Bulls

Da Bulls