Blow out in Brooklyn

The Bulls won their first road game in the first quarter against what is considered an average to below average team, the Nets.  They built up the lead every quarter for a blow out win. 

This is what good teams do, they put an opponent away early and rest their starters.  Offering starters rest in the 4th Q while winning should keep this team healthy going into the winter.

You could not ask for a more ideal start albeit its just three games.   

2-0 and rightfully so.

The Bulls, projected to be a 43 win team, are 2-0 after beating two Eastern Conference teams, Boston and Indiana.  Both opponents were on the backside of back-to-back games.  This start is good and to be expected for a Bulls team projected to win 43 games.

The Bulls took 1st period leads in both games, and won according to how they were put together in the off-season; they moved the ball on offense, shot well and out rebounded their opponents. They ran when it was opportunistic and defended. Surprisingly they shot the 3pt well.

Chicago plays on the road in Brooklyn, then at Boston. The Knickerbockers come to Chicago and then Chicago travels to Indiana the next day for a back-to-back. 

Winning one of the three road games and beating the Knicks at home (2-2) would be par.  Chicago beating The Knicks and then Indiana the following day would be superb.

Winning

Rajon Rondo attends Bulls summer league.   

Dwayne Wade, in China, tweets recognition to first round pick Valentine after the Bulls win their Summer league series on Valentine's last second overtime shot.

For this rebuilding team, caring and winning matter.  Wade is there to set a standard.  Rajon too.  I think their actions show they understand.   Let's see how this attitude plays out going into Feburary.

Update:

With a projected 43 win season, the Bulls should be about .500 in Feburary and competing for the 8th playoff spot.

That's where these two veteran free agents should have this team.  

2016-17 Bulls forecast

16 wins and 66 losses. That's 538's forecast for a NBA team with minimum salary players.

Using NBA salary data, 538 calculates $2.6 million as the value of a win over the league baseline.  That is the price for talent that will give a team an edge and a win. It would factor into assessing a free agent's salary. 

41 wins is the league average.  

The team goal is to spend money on better than minimum salary players to get wins over the NBA baseline and hopefully over the NBA average of 41.

To evaluate a player, 538 created a "Wins Above Replacement projection" WAR measurement to assess the number of wins a player is forecast to add to a minimum team's seasonal win total. Each WAR over zero is a win added to the team's 16 win baseline. 

A high WAR number means the player contributes more to the win total and can be compensated more.  538 set a win's value at 2.6 M per win.  That price creates a way to evaluate a team salary and player contracts but that's another topic.

The Bulls backcourt has some aging stars. Their WAR tells us what will they contribute in 2016.  We can total each player's WAR for a team forecast.

SG Dwayne Wade is forecast to produce 3 wins above a minimum replacement (3 WAR) player.

PG Rajon Rondo is also forecast to produce 3 wins above the minimum.

SF Jimmy Butler is forecast to produce 7 wins or WAR

That's a backcourt generating 13 wins over the baseline.

Front court  C Robin Lopez WAR is 4 and PF Taj Gibson has a WAR of 4.

Key rotation player Nikola Mirotic is a WAR of 4.  Denzel Valentine. the rookie, is projected with a WAR for 2 his first year. 

Doug McDremott, Bobby Portis and Tony Snell project to add nothing at best. Doug and Snell maybe play a bit under the average minimum NBA player.

Total Bull's WAR is 27. Add it to the 16 wins projected for a replacement player team, or baseline, yeilds 43.

The roster isn't set but salary cap is limited so assume any other player they add will be a minimum baseline player (WAR=0) which adds nothing to the team's seasonal WAR.

Note: T'wane Moore who left the Bulls is a 0 WAR player.  

Can these guys play together ? The WAR metric doesn't care.  

Isn't Wade a scrappy veteran capable of winning a critical game ? Yes and WAR factors that character and veteran benefit into the WAR score.

A 43 wins Bulls team is one more win than last year.  It's one win less than the 8th seeded team which slid into the playoffs with 44 wins.

43-39 Should put us right where we were at the 2016 NBA draft.

Deng to LA Lakers

Loul Deng signed with LA Lakers.   He's an older player now but hard work pays off. 

The Lakers added a hard working veteran to anchor a young roster.

Kobe is gone.   It's Deng's team.

Who's on first?

Hoiberg insists  he can work with Bulls All-Star Butler

Called out by Jimmy Butler last season, Chicago Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg insisted Monday that he can still work with the two-time All-Star guard.

This headline is troubling.  Jimmy Butler played successfully for one coach and his game wasn't fully compatible with his team's all-star point guard.  Hoiberg isn't the only one needing to show he can work with a team.

As an example, Golden State moved hybrid PG/SG Monta Ellis and drafted the taller Klay Thompson to play next to Steph Curry as a SG/SF.  Under both Jackson and Kerr, both players figured a way to move the ball and work together to win a championship and set NBA win record.

Jimmy Butler will need to find a way to work within a more dynamic offense.  That's the NBA right game now and it's up to Bulter to figure a way to fit into Hoiberg's offense.  Isolation plays are for stat hounds and LeBron James.

Rose was sent packing and it's time for Butler to respond.

Jimmy Butler, Olympian

Daily Herald:

Bulls guard Jimmy Butler made the cut. He'll join Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Kyrie Irving, Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Jordan, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and three members of the Golden State Warriors -- Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes."http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20160627/sports/160629145/

The NBA season is long but not as long for Jimmy Butler who missed the playoffs.

DeMarcus Cousins aside, it's a good collection of players and good for Jimmy to play this summer.