Thursday, August 20, 2015

Irrational Exhuberance


It's the dog days of August for Bulls fans. Time to speculate how this team will do in the upcoming season. This article caught my eyWhy the Chicago Bulls will NOT make the playoffs  and first thought "trolling", but a negative outlook is just as rational as a positive one so let's look at the playoff competition and  a few underrated players on the Bulls roster.


First we read the Pacers will finish ahead of the Bulls for spot #8. The Pacers get George back and really, if he were Rose coming back from an injury we'd be thinking he's not 100% so George isn't going be 100%. Furthermore, with recent changes to the pacers roster, he's going to playing agisnt bigger players at PF.   
" That means playing George at power forward, even though he had achieved his success with Indiana while playing at small forward." 
Pacers signing Monta Ellis is not that big a boost. As a Warriors fan since '91 I've seen Monta rack up the stats and take bad shot after shot.  The W's brought in Jerry West and he quickly shipped Ellis off and they've been better at the guard positions since.  

There is no reason to think the Celtics at #7 are going to be better than the Bulls excpet that Coach is squeezing more than expected out of the roster.  
How far the Celtics go under Stevens will come down to the talent they manage to acquire. Clever schemes can't make up for lacking stars that can elevate a team's ceiling on their own. What is crystal clear even now, is that Boston is still trying to find that elite player, and in just two years Stevens has established himself as one of the best coaches in the league, and the Celtics greatest asset.
How did the 2015 draft go ?
The Celtics tried to trade up to draft Kelly Oubre but couldn't work out a deal, according to Sporting News' Sean Deveney. This latest report only seems to confirm the terrible, terrible draft night the Celtics had.
Ainge had draft pick assets he wanted to use to trade up but had no takers so he drafted best players and now has some players to trade.  He's first pick was a surprise, another back court player.  That's not a team headed to the playoffs.

So that's two playoff spots the Bulls should land given the returning roster.


What about that Bulls roster?

Let's address Dunleavy since I'm a Warriors fan by geography and watched that franchise select him 3rd in the NBA draft.  First, Dunleavy never fit in.  He was loathed by Golden State fans.  Too slow and cannot defend. Well a guy that plays too slow who sticks in the NBA for knowing the game isn't going to lose much when he's older.  He's developed a skill set and role that doesn't depend on speed. Another year isn't going to diminish his game.  Having him with his shooting skill for the low cost they paid is a big plus.

Kirk Hinrich is a veteran PG SG which I think is needed for a playoff run. Did they over pay to keep him? No.  He's another steal for the current market and a veteran that can help a first year coach.  So that's another player they are fortunate to have kept.

Noah and Gibson are 30 and supposed to have an age related drop off.  Well LeBron James is 30 and more reliant on athleticism. Any one heard about him dropping off his game in 2015? Furthermore the front court players can play longer as they age.  A 30 year old Center/PF isn't dropping off as much as a 30 year old SF/SG.

A lot depends on how much Nikola Mirotic, Tony Snell and Doug McDermott play. Of course these are first round draft picks so it goes without saying they all need to contribute. That's the same for any team. Rookie Bobby Portis might even help out the front court.

Rose should be healthier and his wingman Jimmy Butler tells us this offseason he added PG skills. If true then the Bulls have a LeBron light. If not then the Bulls resigned a defender for James and scorer.