2016-17 Bulls forecast

16 wins and 66 losses. That's 538's forecast for a NBA team with minimum salary players.

Using NBA salary data, 538 calculates $2.6 million as the value of a win over the league baseline.  That is the price for talent that will give a team an edge and a win. It would factor into assessing a free agent's salary. 

41 wins is the league average.  

The team goal is to spend money on better than minimum salary players to get wins over the NBA baseline and hopefully over the NBA average of 41.

To evaluate a player, 538 created a "Wins Above Replacement projection" WAR measurement to assess the number of wins a player is forecast to add to a minimum team's seasonal win total. Each WAR over zero is a win added to the team's 16 win baseline. 

A high WAR number means the player contributes more to the win total and can be compensated more.  538 set a win's value at 2.6 M per win.  That price creates a way to evaluate a team salary and player contracts but that's another topic.

The Bulls backcourt has some aging stars. Their WAR tells us what will they contribute in 2016.  We can total each player's WAR for a team forecast.

SG Dwayne Wade is forecast to produce 3 wins above a minimum replacement (3 WAR) player.

PG Rajon Rondo is also forecast to produce 3 wins above the minimum.

SF Jimmy Butler is forecast to produce 7 wins or WAR

That's a backcourt generating 13 wins over the baseline.

Front court  C Robin Lopez WAR is 4 and PF Taj Gibson has a WAR of 4.

Key rotation player Nikola Mirotic is a WAR of 4.  Denzel Valentine. the rookie, is projected with a WAR for 2 his first year. 

Doug McDremott, Bobby Portis and Tony Snell project to add nothing at best. Doug and Snell maybe play a bit under the average minimum NBA player.

Total Bull's WAR is 27. Add it to the 16 wins projected for a replacement player team, or baseline, yeilds 43.

The roster isn't set but salary cap is limited so assume any other player they add will be a minimum baseline player (WAR=0) which adds nothing to the team's seasonal WAR.

Note: T'wane Moore who left the Bulls is a 0 WAR player.  

Can these guys play together ? The WAR metric doesn't care.  

Isn't Wade a scrappy veteran capable of winning a critical game ? Yes and WAR factors that character and veteran benefit into the WAR score.

A 43 wins Bulls team is one more win than last year.  It's one win less than the 8th seeded team which slid into the playoffs with 44 wins.

43-39 Should put us right where we were at the 2016 NBA draft.